Final 2021 estimates (devolved)

Tomorrow, devolved elections will take place in Wales, Scotland and London. Here are my final poll averages and seat estimates. All changes are from the previous elections in 2016.

Welsh Parliament

Constituency ballot (FPTP)

  • LAB: 36% (+1)
  • CON: 28% (+7)
  • PC: 19% (-2)
  • LD: 5% (-3)
  • REF: 4% (+4)
  • ABOL: 3% (+3)
  • GRN: 1% (-2)
  • UKIP: 0% (-13)

Regional List ballot (PR)

  • LAB: 31% (-1)
  • CON: 25% (+6)
  • PC: 20% (-1)
  • ABOL: 7% (+3)
  • LD: 5% (-2)
  • GRN: 4% (+1)
  • REF: 3% (+3)
  • UKIP: 1% (-12)

Stats for Lefties seat estimate

  • LAB: 26 (-3)
  • CON: 17 (+6)
  • PC: 14 (+2)
  • ABOL: 2 (+2)
  • LD: 1 (-)
  • UKIP: 0 (-7)

Result: Hung Parliament

Scottish Parliament

Constituency ballot (FPTP)

  • SNP: 49% (+3)
  • CON: 21% (-1)
  • LAB: 21% (-2)
  • LD: 8% (-)
  • GRN: 1% (-)

Regional List ballot (PR)

  • SNP: 38% (-4)
  • CON: 22% (-1)
  • LAB: 17% (-2)
  • GRN: 10% (+3)
  • LD: 6% (+1)
  • ALBA: 3% (+3)

Stats for Lefties seat estimate

  • SNP: 66 (+3)
  • CON: 28 (-3)
  • LAB: 19 (-5)
  • GRN: 11 (+5)
  • LD: 5 (-)

Result: SNP majority of 3 seats

London Assembly

Constituency ballot (FPTP)

  • LAB: 43% (-1)
  • CON: 30% (-1)
  • GRN: 13% (+4)
  • LD: 9% (+2)
  • UKIP: 0% (-8)

Regional List ballot (PR)

  • LAB: 41% (+1)
  • CON: 31% (+2)
  • GRN: 15% (+7)
  • LD: 8% (+2)
  • UKIP: 0% (-7)

Stats for Lefties seat estimate

  • LAB: 11 (-1)
  • CON: 8 (-)
  • GRN: 4 (+2)
  • LD: 2 (+1)
  • UKIP: 0 (-2)

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