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Who will win the 2024 local elections?
On May 2nd, alongside the Police Commissioner (PCC) and Metro Mayor elections, around 2,700 councillors on 107 local councils in England will also be elected. These range from Dorset Council (Tory/Lib Dem marginal) to Halton (91% of seats are Labour). Most of these seats were last contested in 2021, when the Tories were crushing Labour in polls, suggesting that there are major opportunities for Labour gains.
However, Labour supporters should temper their expectations. Unlike the PCC and Mayoral elections, the results will not be particularly dramatic, and even small Labour gains should not be seen as concerning for the party. They already did very well out of the 2022 and 2023 local elections, reversing the losses faced by the party in 2021. This will simply reassert those results on a much smaller scale.
Around 80 of the 107 councils up for election are safe, or are very unlikely to change hands (at least in terms of majority control). In this article I’ll focus on the most marginal councils, so you know which ones to watch on election night (May 2nd).
Part 1: Understanding local government
Here are some important things to know about English local elections.
Firstly, it’s an inconsistent mess. There are 315 local authorities in England, but their responsibilities vary widely. All in all, there are 5 different types of local council in Britain, each with different powers, budgets, and electoral cycles. Except where otherwise indicated, each council has a four-year term of office and uses the first-past-the-post electoral system (or its multi-member variant, the “bloc vote”).
- 64 English Unitary Authorities (49 elect all seats, 15 elect in thirds)
- 32 London Boroughs (all seats)
- 20 English Counties (all seats)
- 36 English Metropolitan Districts (30 elect all seats, 6 elect in thirds)
- 164 English Districts (109 elect all seats, 7 elect half, 48 elect in thirds)
Part 2: Who runs English local government?
Following the 2023 local elections, no single party dominates English local government. The largest party (Labour) controls just 31% of local councils, and holds just over one-third of total councillors (35%). Majority control is now a thing of the past. Instead, coalitions and minority administrations are now the norm – over 3 in 10 councils were under no overall control following the May 2023 contests. Majority control is thus increasingly irrelevant as a statistic; I personally think it is more interesting to look at which parties hold a plurality of seats (the most seats).
In terms of which parties have a plurality on each council:
🟦 Conservative: 121
🟥 Labour: 120
🟧 Liberal Democrat: 52
🟩 Green: 9
⬜️ Other / Independent: 14
The map below shows the composition of English councils after the May 2023 elections. Click the button to toggle between majority control / plurality.
In terms of how many seats each party had after May 2023 (+/- vs 2020):
🟥 Labour: 5,700 (+232)
🟦 Conservative: 5,375 (-1,164)
🟧 Liberal Democrat: 2,836 (+609)
🟩 Green: 746 (+392)
⬜️ Other / Independent: 1,482 (-70)
Defections and by-elections will have changed these numbers slightly, but the point here is to illustrate electoral performance, so I have used the totals immediately following the 2023 local elections.
Part 3: What will happen in 2023?
These local elections will not be like the 2023 locals, when the Tories lost 1,000 seats and Labour made its biggest gains in well over 10 years. Just 2,700 seats on 107 councils are up for election in May 2024 (15% of seats), with Labour already holding around 900 of them. The scope for gains is further limited by the fact that 53 of these 107 councils are *already* led by Labour, and by the fact that many non-Labour councils only have a small amount of seats (usually one-third) up for election.
Having said all that, Labour should expect to make moderate gains. Most of these seats were last contested in 2021, when the Tories were leading by double digits; many should flip to Labour now that Keir Starmer’s party is leading by 20 points in polls.
Across the past two local elections (2022 and 2023) the average percentage change in seats has been as follows:
🟥 Labour +13%
🟦 Conservative -28%
🟧 Liberal Democrat +35%
🟩 Green +110%
⬜️ Other +11%
*If* the 2024 result reflects these average changes, the results would be roughly:
🟥 Labour 1,100 (+130)
🟦 Conservative 700 (-280)
🟧 Liberal Democrat 550 (+140)
🟩 Green 220 (+120)
⬜️ Other 210 (+20)
This is thus what we should ‘expect’ to happen in 2024, based on how Labour has been performing in local elections since it began leading in the polls. It’s not a projection (that’s largely impossible for local elections) but it’s what the past two years of local elections point to, especially last year.
However, for the reasons I outlined above, a smaller set of gains (e.g. +50) would be entirely respectable. Losses (e.g. -50) would be worrying for Labour, but if they remain the largest party in local government once all votes are counted, I would expect the party to be largely satisfied with the result.
Part 4: Councils to watch
Another reason why these elections will not be like 2023 (which saw 36 councils change hands) is that most local authorities up for election are either controlled by Labour already (43), are firmly safe for another party (11), or have so few seats up for election that the opposition parties simply cannot realistically gain majority control in this election (22). Some of these may fall into no overall control (NOC), but it is unlikely that they change hands.
There are, however, 31 where one of the four major parties could reasonably win a majority that they currently lack (or where another party holds the majority) – some are competitive for multiple parties, which is why they are listed twice.
The breakdown of current seats for these councils (plus who they are targets for) can be seen in the tables above, with thanks to Open Council Data.
If I was to pick the top five councils to watch, it would be these:
Bristol (all seats, currently NOC / Labour Mayor)
Bristol City Council is a key battleground for the post-Corbyn political left. Currently governed by directly-elected Labour Mayor Marvin Rees, Bristol voters abolished the post of Mayor in a referendum, handing power solely to the councillors from May 2024 onwards. The council election is a closely fought battle between the Greens (currently the largest party on the council) and Labour.
If the Greens succeed in gaining the council – either as a majority or a minority administration – it would suggest that their bid to gain the Labour-held parliamentary seat of Bristol Central is on track to succeed. Conversely, if Labour manage to defeat the challenge from their left, it would indicate that Starmer has little to worry about in terms of left-wing challenges in urban areas.
Current composition:
🟩 Green 24
🟥 Labour 23
🟦 Conservative 14
🟧 Liberal Democrat 5
⬜️ Other 4
Tamworth (33% of seats, currently NOC)
In 2023, Labour won 8 of the 10 seats that were up for election in Tamworth’s council election; they went on to gain the parliamentary seat of Tamworth in a by-election later that year. This year, another third of the council will be up for election, with all 10 seats won by the Tories when they were last up in 2021. A 2023-sized victory for Labour would easily deliver them majority control of the council for the first time in 20 years, and would confirm that the Labour surge has continued into 2024.
Current composition:
🟦 Conservative 14
🟥 Labour 9
⬜️ Other 7
Dorset (all seats, currently CON)
Dorset Council is an unusual case. Due to it being a brand-new unitary authority, the last election was in May 2019. In that election, the Tories lost badly across the country (losing 1,300 councillors) but easily won Dorset, winning 52% of the seats. Even so, Dorset is one of the best test cases for assessing whether the Liberal Democrats’ fightback has continued into 2024. Labour is nowhere in Dorset (2% of seats), with only the Lib Dems capable of mounting a serious challenge to Tory dominance, giving the Lib Dems free reign to mop up tactical votes from Labour voters.
If the Lib Dems win, it would suggest that my projections of a Lib Dem revival in southern England are very much on track to materialise. If they fall short, it would suggest the Tories’ support in their strongholds might be holding up.
Current composition:
🟦 Conservative 43
🟧 Liberal Democrat 27
🟩 Green 5
🟥 Labour 2
⬜️ Other 5
Dudley (all seats, currently CON)
Even as many ‘Red Wall’ councils have returned to Labour or swung to Starmer’s party (such as Hartlepool and Stoke-on-Trent), Dudley has remained stubbornly Tory. But Starmer’s party now has one last chance to take it before the general election, as a boundary review means all seats are up for election.
Last year, Labour won a majority of the seats up for election (13 to 11) but failed to gain the council as only a third of seats were being contested. With all seats now up, simply repeating the 2023 result would give Labour a narrow overall majority. Gaining Dudley directly from the Tories would be a satisfying result for Labour, winning back a council that they have not held since before the EU referendum.
Current composition:
🟦 Conservative 42
🟥 Labour 26
🟧 Liberal Democrat 1
⬜️ Other 3
Hartlepool (33% of seats, currently NOC)
In May 2021, Keir Starmer experienced an embarrassing early defeat when he lost the parliamentary seat of Hartlepool to the Conservatives in a by-election. On the same day, the Conservatives emerged as the largest party on the council. Since then, Labour has been steadily rebuilding its support in Hartlepool, and in 2023 they fell just one seat short of an overall majority. Though it’s probably one of the easiest gains for Labour in 2024 – they won 75% of seats up for election in 2023, and would easily win the council if they repeated this in 2024 – gaining Hartlepool Council would be a poetic victory and would point to the parliamentary seat returning to Labour in 2024.
Current composition:
🟥 Labour 17
🟦 Conservative 12
⬜️ Other 7
Conclusion
Despite a number of interesting councils being up for election, these local elections are quite likely to be overshadowed and forgotten. The Mayoral and PCC elections being held on the same day are likely to be more dramatic, resulting in larger swings and more gains than the mostly safe and uncompetitive councils being contested. Furthermore, the general election (expected for November) is set to produce a large majority for Labour, further relegating the local election results to a historical footnote.
This is, in my view, a shame. There are a number of contests that will tell us a lot about the smaller stories of the upcoming general election. Bristol, Norwich and Stroud will tell us how well the Greens are performing versus Labour; Dorset and Gloucester will showcase the strength of the Liberal Democrats; and Dudley / Hartlepool will give us one final pre-election glimpse into Labour’s revival in the Red Wall. It’s worth paying attention to, even if the number of contests is smaller than 2022 and 2023.
This concludes my series of previews for the 2024 local and regional elections – be sure to keep an eye on @ LeftieStats on Twitter/X and this website for projections and results.
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