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Everyone knows why we’re here, so let’s get right to the numbers.
Popular vote
🔴 LAB 39.6% (+6.7)
🔵 CON 21.0% (-23.8)
🟣 REF 16.0% (+13.9)
🟠 LD 11.3% (-0.6)
🟢 GRN 6.1% (+3.3)
🟡 SNP 2.9% (-1.1)
+/- vs 2019
In 2017 and 2019, the major parties increased their vote throughout the campaign. In 2024, the opposite has occurred. Both major parties have seen their vote share fall since the election was called; Labour has dropped from 45.1% to 39.6% (-5.3), and the Conservatives have fallen from 23.1% to 21.0% (-2.1).
The smaller parties, meanwhile, have done very well out of this election. Reform has benefitted the most, rising from 11.5% to 16.0% (+4.5). The Lib Dem vote, meanwhile, has grown from 9.3% to 11.3% (+2.0). The Green vote has remained largely static (+0.5) but this is actually remarkable for the party – in previous elections (2015, 2017 and 2019) their vote has dropped strongly throughout election campaigns. That simply has not happened here.
Projected seats
🔴 LAB 456 (+256)
🔵 CON 80 (-295)
🟠 LD 65 (+57)
🟡 SNP 21 (-27)
🟢 GRN 4 (+3)
🟣 REF 2 (+2)
⚪️ OTH 19 (-)
My final projection for this election suggests that Labour will win 456 seats (70.2%), producing the biggest landslide for any political party since 1931. Meanwhile, the Conservatives would be reduced to 80 seats, the worst result for the party in British history.
Amongst the other parties, the Liberal Democrats would finally rebound from their 2015 wipeout, gaining dozens and dozens of Conservative constituencies in southern England to emerge with almost as many seats as the Tories (with a possibility of surpassing them). The beleaguered Scottish National Party would lose to Labour in Scotland, dropping to 21 seats – their worst result since 2010.
Despite their vote share exceeding that of UKIP, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would only win two seats – Clacton (where Farage is standing) and Ashfield (where former Conservative MP Lee Anderson is seeking re-election as a Reform candidate). However, given the uncertainty in modelling new parties emerging from nothing to win millions of votes, I think it is highly possible that they will win more. First-past-the-post, though, can make it very difficult for smaller parties to succeed. UKIP discovered this in 2015.
As for the Greens, despite only a modest increase in vote share (which would nonetheless be their best-ever result) the real triumph would be their seat totals. They are projected to win Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire – taking them to 4 seats (+3).
Map of results (geographic)
Map of results (hex map)
Here is a table of results by seat.
Uncertainty
And yet, there is some uncertainty here. Turnout is expected to fall, given public scepticism of both major parties and the general apathy in the electorate. This could result in some parties performing better (or worse) than polls indicate, due to their opponents’ voters staying home unexpectedly. At the same time, there are many seats (Islington North, Rochdale, Birmingham Ladywood, Chingford and Woodford Green) where independents or smaller parties are mounting serious challenges to Labour that polls may not pick up on – though this will not change the overall outcome.
Furthermore, many seats in my projection are set to be decided by only a handful of votes.
A total of 130 constituencies are set to be won by a margin of less than 5%:
🔴 LAB 58
🔵 CON 46
🟠 LD 17
🟡 SNP 11
🟢 GRN 1
🟢 PC 1
🟣 REF 1
It would only take a slight polling error or unique local circumstances to flip these seats. However, even if Labour lost all 58 seats where they currently lead by less than 5%, they’d still win a crushing landslide majority on par with 1997 and 2001. So it doesn’t really matter all that much. Labour probably won’t win every seat they are projected to win, but they don’t particularly need to. They just need to win 326 seats, and that looks like a certainty.
Model techniques
You can read up on my methodology for seat estimates here.
Conclusion
So, what will the outcomes be for the various parties?
🔴 Labour is on course for one of the biggest victories in the history of the British party system, surpassing their previous best results (1945, 1997 and 2001). Keir Starmer is virtually certain to emerge as Prime Minister on July 5th, and he will likely have an overwhelming majority, allowing him to enact whatever policies he wishes without any difficulty. By all accounts, his mission to restore Labour to power has succeeded. He will win the election.
🔵 In two days’ time, the Conservative Party will be out of office for the first time since 2010. Many (if not most) of their major leaders will lose their seats, leaving only a rump of Tory MPs made up almost entirely of backbenchers who have represented safe rural seats for decades.
It is not clear who will emerge as a leadership candidate in that scenario, or if anyone credible could possibly reunite a fractious Tory Party that is facing a serious challenge from a surging Reform Party. If the Tories remain above 150 seats, they have a road to recovery; if they collapse to 80 seats, it is difficult to see how the Tories could return to power without merging with Reform to create a new right-wing party. Regardless of the outcome, the Tories will enter opposition with no ideas, virtually no credible leaders, and no sense of purpose.
🟠 Many polls, MRPs and models put the Liberal Democrats close to or surpassing the Conservatives in seats. For a party that just 9 years ago was almost entirely wiped out, this would be a monumental accomplishment. If Ed Davey does become Leader of the Opposition, British politics will be stunningly transformed overnight. Even if he does not, they are likely to win over 40 or 50 seats. If this happens, Davey’s party will look to him as a remarkable saviour – the man who took the shattered shell of the Liberal Democrats and returned them to the status of a major party, doing so without dividing his party or abandoning their valued principles. I expect Davey will remain leader of the Lib Dems for many years to come, even if they fall short of becoming the main opposition party.
🟡 For the Scottish National Party (SNP), this election came at the worst possible moment. Their leader and First Minister (Humza Yousaf) only recently resigned after his government nearly collapsed, and the party had been dropping in polls for months. Although his successor John Swinney is well-regarded, he has arrived in office far too late to rebuild his party’s image in the minds of the electorate. Whilst he may do so by the time of the next Holyrood election, this general election will be a very difficult result for the SNP. All signs point to a strong victory for Labour, delivering their best Scottish result since 2010.
🟣 Reform UK, with their new (returning) leader Nigel Farage, has had a very successful campaign. They have made themselves a serious contender for the right-wing vote, even surpassing the Tories in many polls. They also look set to achieve something that UKIP never managed to do – win multiple seats in a general election. Farage looks highly likely to be elected to Parliament for the first time, guaranteeing that Reform will remain a major player in British politics for many years.
🟢 Finally, the Greens look set to win over 6% of the national popular vote, and win 4 seats (+3). This would be a remarkable achievement for the party, as it would not only be their best result, but would also be the best result for an independent left-wing party in British history. The ILP (after it split from Labour) only got 4 seats, while the CPGB peaked at two.
Winning over 6% of the national vote, and achieving the greatest result for the independent non-Labour left in the history of Britain, would be a major success – especially given that in 2015-20, the Greens were in disarray. Their council results were fairly awful, their support was plunging outside of Brighton Pavilion, and Corbyn had monopolised the Left vote. But the election of Starmer as Labour leader gave the Greens a historic opportunity to rebuild, and they seized it. Incredibly effective organising, strong leadership and an electoral machine worthy of anyone’s admiration has powered them to solid result after solid result in local and regional elections. Now, that machine will finally be tested in a general election – and I think it will pass the test with flying colours.
Stats for Lefties 